Ten years following the UK stumbled into a hurried public vote that split the country and unleashed chaos, a advisory emerges from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical might transpire with a national vote on a united Ireland, sparking convulsions for which nobody is equipped.
That represents the warning from two respected commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a possibly fraught and seismic public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction very quickly," O’Toole said. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Aims to Stir Debate
The team have studied the governmental, financial and cultural arguments for any constitutional change in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the matter with a series of lectures that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts everybody, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We must avoid a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose results have not been spelled out because then you land with an highly split population where people who have lost are not reconciled to defeat and the victorious side lack clarity quite what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a referendum on Irish unification if it appears likely that a majority would approve.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue such a time is looming, and a organisation named Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions play down the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity if and when there could be a referendum.
Absence of Serious Debate
Partisan language for and against unification has hidden the absence of informed dialogue, noted the journalist.
"Many are supportive or opposed the concept but the concrete planning which could extend past that to make it possible is mostly absent. A great deal has taken place in universities but scarcely any government figures or campaigners are willing to participate even with the essentials. For instance, which kind of country would you want? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, no writer supports unity or the status quo. They writes two essays that strive for neutrality in presenting the case for a unified Ireland and the argument opposing it, assembling financial and societal statistics, historical precedents and structural examples.
Debates cover national emblems, taxes, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the threat of unionist unrest. The objective is to educate and stimulate conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there is still lacking a debate," commented the writer. "Discussion suggests an recognition of the idea that there may exist good arguments on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters claim they prefer unity but refuse increased taxation or adopting a alternative symbol to acknowledge unionists' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin must work out what the offer from nationalist groups is aside from just stating: 'We seek a united Ireland and we love you'," remarked O’Toole.
Possibility of Public Vote
McBride thinks a referendum in his era is probable and that it could happen abruptly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a bad or a negligent government minister who declares: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have credible, legitimate points, he said. "Somebody will succeed in this matter and the other side will ultimately be defeated but both parties has got important lessons to learn from the alternative positions."
Call for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster should participate in the debate, urged O’Toole. "This is about your state. It's a British question just as much as it is an Irish question."
